Market Spotlight
September 15, 2025
What You Need to Know
Hi, I wanted to share some good news—mortgage rates are still holding near their lowest levels in almost a year. That’s rare in this market.
Here’s what’s important: the Fed is expected to cut rates this week, but that decrease is already built into the rates we see today. If the Fed shows more confidence in the economy, mortgage rates could actually bounce up in the short run.
That makes this a great time to get ahead of the uncertainty—lock in today’s low rate while it’s here, and still negotiate with sellers before demand picks up again.
KEY TAKEAWAY: It’s Fed Week, and while markets expect a rate cut, don’t assume mortgage rates will automatically follow lower.
Last week was calm—mortgage rates barely moved, holding near 6.3%, the lowest levels since Fall 2024. The bond market essentially took a breather after digesting the weak jobs report, waiting for the Fed’s big reveal.
This week brings the September Fed meeting, plus fresh retail sales, homebuilder confidence, housing starts, and inflation data. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 0.25%, but what really matters is the “dot plot” and Powell’s tone—how aggressive they’ll be on future cuts given softer labor data and sticky inflation.
AGENT FOCUS: Be prepared to explain that a Fed cut doesn’t mean mortgage rates automatically go lower. In fact, if the Fed signals confidence in the economy, mortgage rates could tick higher. Buyers should see today’s rates as an opportunity—stable, near 10-month lows, and not guaranteed to last.
Happy House Hunting!
Special thanks for Jeff Tanaka at Envoy mortgage for this market update.
Jeff Tanaka
Envoy Mortgage
Sales Manager, NMLS # 316160
P: 805-927-3863
C: 805-459-5209
https://www.envoymortgage.com/jtanaka
jtanaka@envoymortgage.com
746 Main Street
Cambria, CA 93428
